Recently, through visits and research in the electric heavy-duty truck market, we have identified two major trends. First, vehicle battery capacity is being upgraded at an accelerated pace, with 400 kWh becoming the mainstream and 600 kWh beginning to enter the market. Second, end users are actively exploring longer operating distances, with application scenarios rapidly expanding from short-distance resource transportation to medium- and long-distance transport.
Based on these trends, we believe that electric heavy-duty trucks are entering a new round of technological upgrading. As one of the most critical power units of the vehicle, the electric drive axle is expected to usher in a period of rapid market growth.
Why can we draw this conclusion? The logic is straightforward. To break into long-distance trunk-line applications, users require electric heavy-duty trucks with large battery capacity, low energy consumption, and extended driving range. To achieve these performance targets, the e axle has become an inevitable choice. In this article, we provide a comprehensive analysis from the perspectives of electric heavy-duty truck market development, end-market demand, and the product characteristics of the e axle system.
01 The Development of the Electric Heavy-Duty Truck Industry Requires Electric Axles
First, let us review the overall development process of electric heavy-duty trucks. Using 2023 as a dividing point, the industry can be broadly divided into a technology exploration phase and a market breakthrough phase, and it is now approaching a fully market-oriented application stage.
Phase 1:
Before 2023, constrained by factors such as battery technology, energy replenishment infrastructure, and cost, electric heavy-duty trucks remained in a technology exploration stage. Products were mainly based on centralized drive systems, with overall vehicle configurations similar to traditional fuel-powered trucks. Most vehicles adopted rear-mounted 282 kWh battery packs and central electric drive systems composed of traditional transmissions paired with low-speed motors. Application scenarios were primarily short-distance yard transportation, driven largely by subsidies and road access policies.
Phase 2:
Advantages began to emerge, and application scenarios expanded rapidly. Market penetration increased from 6% to 14% in 2024 and further rose to 22% in the first half of this year. The market saw a rapid increase in both oil-to-electric conversion products and brand-new platform models. Battery capacity continued to grow, with rear-mounted and under-mounted battery solutions developing in parallel. Central electric drive technology began adopting dual-motor and medium- to high-speed motor solutions, while e axle products completed their initial market introduction.
Phase 3:
After 2026, as market demand gradually replaces policy incentives, electric heavy-duty trucks are expected to enter a stage of large-scale market-oriented adoption, with competition increasingly focused on total cost of ownership (TCO). Application scenarios will expand from short- and medium-distance resource transportation to long-distance operations. Vehicle platforms will shift from oil-to-electric conversions to purpose-built designs, with a growing share of large-capacity battery packs and under-mounted battery layouts. Driven by factors such as large battery capacity, under-body battery swapping, lightweight design, and low energy consumption, the electric truck axle is expected to become the mainstream drive solution.
At present, the penetration rate of electric drive axles in the electric heavy-duty truck market remains relatively low-less than 5% in electric tractors and around 3% across the entire heavy commercial vehicle segment. However, as electric heavy-duty trucks continue to undergo technological upgrading, the penetration rate of truck drive axles is expected to exceed 20% by 2026. This optimistic outlook has become an industry consensus. In addition to leading component suppliers such as Bosch, major truck manufacturers including FAW Jiefang and Sinotruk are actively deploying EV axle products.
Heavy-duty electric drive axle products launched in the Chinese market.
From the perspective of current market applications, more than 90% of electric tractors are still concentrated in short-distance bulk material transportation. However, emerging technologies such as under-body battery swapping, ultra-fast charging, large-capacity batteries, and hydrogen fuel cells are all targeting long-distance trunk-line applications. As long-range electric heavy-duty trucks enter a period of rapid growth, electric axles will become a "must-have" and standard configuration for these vehicles.
02 Electric Drive Axles Will Enable Iterative Upgrades of Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks
From the overall development of the e axle system, a positive trend of deep collaboration between vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers has taken shape. For example, based on its forward-looking assessment of long-distance applications for new energy heavy-duty trucks, Bosch initiated the development of EV axle kits as early as 2021. Its motors are derived from mature European platforms, while the entire axle system has been reinforced to meet the load requirements of Chinese commercial vehicles, with localized development and validation. These products have already been applied across multiple vehicle models in the Chinese market.
From the perspective of technological upgrading, we believe that electric drive axles, much like power batteries, will play a pivotal role in the evolution of new energy heavy-duty trucks.
Electric drive axles offer three major advantages: compact size, light weight, and high efficiency.
The e axle system offers three major advantages: compact size, light weight, and high efficiency.
First, the most significant value of the electric axle lies in its ability to change the traditional layout of electric heavy-duty trucks. It allows full utilization of the space inside the frame to arrange under-mounted battery packs, effectively breaking the battery capacity limitations of rear-mounted designs. Compared with rear-mounted layouts, under-frame battery placement also provides additional rearward deformation space for the cab in the event of a collision, improving passive safety. At the same time, it lowers the vehicle's center of gravity and enhances handling stability during high-speed driving.
Light weight is another key advantage of the e axle. By eliminating components such as drive shafts and using compact transmissions with fewer gears, it supports overall vehicle lightweighting-an especially important factor for electric heavy-duty trucks. At present, payload loss remains one of the main pain points in electric heavy-duty truck applications, and the adoption of electric truck axles can effectively mitigate this challenge.
High transmission efficiency and low energy loss constitute the third major advantage of the truck drive axle. Its simplified structure and reduced mass help lower overall vehicle energy consumption. According to Bosch test data, under various operating conditions, vehicles equipped with electric drive axles can reduce energy consumption by 10–15% compared with centralized electric drive systems. As users place increasing emphasis on energy costs and annual mileage continues to rise, this advantage will become a key driver of the accelerated market adoption of e axles.
03 Widespread Adoption Is Only a Matter of Time
In the early stages of promoting any innovative technology, challenges such as scenario adaptability and cost are inevitable. Currently, electric heavy-duty trucks are mainly deployed in resource-based and construction-related transportation, where working conditions are complex and demanding. This places high requirements on the reliability and control strategies of electric axles.
It is reported that in response to these challenges, Bosch has continuously iterated and upgraded both the software and hardware of its EV axle products based on real-world operating conditions. These systems are now capable of meeting the requirements of diverse scenarios, including mountainous terrain, plains, national highways, expressways, standard loads, and heavy-load operations.
Regarding cost, since electric drive axles are still in the early stages of large-scale adoption, unit costs are expected to decrease steadily as installation volumes increase. Moreover, given the production-oriented nature of commercial vehicles, purchase price should not be the sole consideration. Greater emphasis should be placed on total lifecycle cost. When annual mileage exceeds 150,000 kilometers, electric truck axles can quickly offset their higher initial cost through advantages such as lower weight and reduced energy consumption.
In practice, commercial vehicle users tend to focus more on total lifecycle cost than on upfront price alone. This explains why some high-efficiency logistics fleets are willing to purchase European-brand heavy-duty trucks priced above one million yuan.
The widespread adoption of heavy-duty electric drive axles is only a matter of time.
We believe that the development prospects of electric drive axles for heavy-duty trucks can also be assessed by referencing historical transitions, such as the evolution of heavy-duty AMTs from limited acceptance to full standardization, and the rapid adoption of e axles in the electric light truck market. In short, electric axles are laying the foundation for large-scale deployment of electric heavy-duty trucks. Over time, market maturity and continued accumulation of experience will jointly validate this transformation.
